Consumer sentiment across the euro area showed a slight uptick in inflation perceptions and expectations entering the autumn, alongside growing pessimism regarding broader economic growth and tighter access to credit, according to data released by the European Central Bank (ECB) from its Consumer Expectations Survey (CES). <\/p>\n
The latest survey results, published on October 23, 2026, outline consumer attitudes recorded in September compared with the preceding month of August. While longer-term inflation measures remained anchored, short-term indicators edged higher, reflecting persistent financial anxieties among households, particularly among lower-income earners and older demographics. <\/p>\n
Inflation Dynamics and Demographic Divides<\/p>\n
In September, the median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months increased slightly to 3.6%, up from 3.5% in August. At the same time, median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months also crept upward, moving from 3.0% to 3.1%. <\/p>\n
Despite the short-term bumps, longer-term anchors held steady. Median expectations for inflation three years ahead remained unchanged at 2.9%, while expectations for five years ahead stayed anchored at 2.5%. However, uncertainty surrounding inflation expectations for the coming year increased marginally, remaining elevated well above the baseline levels recorded prior to the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East.<\/p>\n
The survey data once again highlighted a notable demographic divide in how households experience and anticipate price pressures. Respondents belonging to the bottom income quintile continued to report higher inflation perceptions and expectations, on average, than those situated in the top income quintile. This structural divergence underscores the heavier burden that rising living costs place on lower-income households, who typically allocate a larger share of their budgets to essential goods like food and energy.<\/p>\n
Furthermore, age played a distinct role in consumer sentiment. Younger respondents, aged 18 to 34, continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations compared with older cohorts, specifically those aged 35 to 54 and 55 to 70.<\/p>\n
Income and Consumption Trends<\/p>\n
Reflecting the ongoing pressure of price changes, consumers adjusted their outlook regarding household finances. Expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months increased marginally to 1.1% in September, compared with 1.0% in August. Mirroring the inflation divide, expected income growth was, on average, higher for respondents in the bottom income quintile at 1.5%, compared to 1.2% for those in the top quintile. <\/p>\n
On the spending side, perceived nominal spending growth over the previous 12 months edged up to 5.3% from 5.2%. Looking ahead, expected nominal spending growth over the next 12 months similarly ticked higher, moving to 3.7% from 3.6% in the previous survey wave, signaling that households anticipate their financial outlays will continue to expand in the near term.<\/p>\n
Economic Growth and Labour Market Outlook<\/p>\n
While consumer spending and income expectations showed minor upward revisions, confidence in the wider macroeconomic environment softened. Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months deteriorated further in September, dropping to -1.5% from -1.2% in August, pointing to a persistent pessimistic outlook regarding overall economic performance.<\/p>\n
Concurrently, expectations for the unemployment rate 12 months ahead increased to 11.3%, up from 11.0% in August. The labour market outlook also exhibited familiar income-based disparities. Households in the bottom income quintile anticipated the highest unemployment rate a year ahead, averaging 13.6%, while households in the top income quintile expected the lowest rate at 9.7%. <\/p>\n
Despite the expected increase in joblessness, the overall labour market outlook remained relatively stable in the minds of consumers. Respondents continued to project that future unemployment rates would sit only slightly above the perceived current unemployment rate of 10.6%, suggesting that households foresee a cooling labour market rather than a sharp economic downturn or dramatic surge in job losses.<\/p>\n
Housing and Credit Access<\/p>\n
In the housing sector, consumer optimism regarding property values gained momentum. Consumers expected the price of their homes to increase by 3.5% over the next 12 months, marking a slight increase from the 3.4% anticipated in August. As has been observed in previous months, expectations for home price growth remained higher among the lowest income quintile, where respondents expected a 4.0% increase, compared to the highest income quintile, where growth was projected at 3.2%.<\/p>\n
Regarding borrowing costs, expectations for mortgage interest rates in 12 months’ time remained unchanged from July levels, holding steady at 4.9%. The survey again revealed stark inequalities in financial access based on wealth: households in the top income quintile expected to secure the lowest mortgage interest rates in a year’s time at 4.4%, whereas those in the bottom quintile anticipated significantly higher rates, averaging 5.7%.<\/p>\n
Credit conditions more broadly also appeared increasingly restrictive to consumers. The net percentage of households reporting a tightening of access to credit over the previous 12 months\u2014relative to those reporting an easing\u2014increased compared with August. A similar trend was observed looking forward, with a higher net percentage of households expecting tighter credit conditions over the coming 12 months.<\/p>\n
The comprehensive microdata underlying these aggregate results are available within the Data and methodological information section of the European Central Bank Consumer Expectations Survey web page. The ECB has scheduled the release of the next set of survey results for October 27, 2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Consumer sentiment across the euro area showed a slight uptick in inflation perceptions and expectations entering the autumn, alongside growing pessimism regarding broader economic growth and tighter access to credit, according to data released by the European Central Bank (ECB) from its Consumer Expectations Survey (CES). The latest survey results, published on October 23, 2026, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":737,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[427],"tags":[680,581,278,858,440,859,447,635,430,77,281,428,856,429,857,860,439],"class_list":["post-738","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-macroeconomics-policy","tag-across","tag-area","tag-central-banks","tag-confidence","tag-consumer","tag-dips","tag-economic","tag-euro","tag-global-economy","tag-growth","tag-inflation","tag-macroeconomics","tag-perceptions","tag-policy","tag-rise","tag-shows","tag-survey"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/estmakcapital.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/738","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/estmakcapital.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/estmakcapital.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/estmakcapital.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/estmakcapital.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=738"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/estmakcapital.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/738\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/estmakcapital.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/737"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/estmakcapital.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=738"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/estmakcapital.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=738"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/estmakcapital.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=738"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}